BSE, NSE Stock Ticker, India

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Market Outlook 27-2-2009

Market to be in narrow range
Based on the global cues market is expected to open flat and will be on the narrow range for the day. Some kind of activity can be seen in the mid session of the day.

As new F & O series begins from today, Activity can be seen in the textile and sugar sectors, as the roll over has been good here.

Technically Nifty can take support at 2760 and 2730 levels and resistance at 2810 and 2831 levels for the day. Being unable to sustain the 2790 levels for the last two days, hence 2790 can be viewed as strong resistance ,If crosses and hold above this levels then buying can emerge in the market.

Traders are expected to be cautious at higher levels.

Mutual Fund Investments

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Market at close 26-2-2009

Firm opening of the European markets and higher US index futures helped the domestic bourses extend recovery in mid-afternoon trade. Hopes of a further cut in policy rates by the Reserve Bank of India aided the recovery on the domestic bourses. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries and Infosys Technologies extended gains and ICICI Bank cut losses. But Ranbaxy Laboratories fell more than 17% after US regulators said one of its plants in India had falsified data and test results. The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 25.56 points, or 0.29%, off 90 points from the day's low.
The market was volatile. After a steady opening, the market weakened in morning trade on concerns of higher borrowing costs for Indian Inc. It came off the lower level shortly. However, a sharp slide in Chinese markets weighed on the domestic bourses for a while in early afternoon trade. The market soon shrugged of the sharp slide in Chinese stocks as lower inflation raised rate cut hopes. The recovery gathered steam on firm opening of the European markets
Volatility may remain towards the close of trading ahead of the expiry of of February 2009 derivatives contracts. As per reports, rollover of Nifty positions from February 2009 series to March 2009 series stood at 62% while marketwide rollover of positions was 57%, as on Wednesday, 25 February 2009.
There are expectations that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will cut interest rates further to support faltering growth. Inflation rate slowed to 3.36% in mid-February 2009, the lowest in nearly 15 months, which would give the central bank more elbow room to loosen monetary policy. As per reports, RBI governor D Subbarao will meet select heads of banks on Friday, 27 February 2009, to hold discussions on issues like credit flow and liquidity conditions.
But concerns about rising borrowing costs for Indian corporates weighed on the market as fears a downgrade of India's sovereign rating by global rating agencies loom large. Raging agency S&P on Tuesday, 24 February 2009, cut its outlook on India's long-term sovereign credit rating to negative from stable citing worsening government finances, which could raise Indian firms' overseas borrowing costs and weaken the rupee. Moody's Economy.com on Wednesday, 25 February 2009, said India's wider fiscal deficit will boost funding costs and weaken investor confidence.
The Union Cabinet today raised the cost of living allowance paid to government employees to 22% of basic salary, from an earlier 16%, Home Minister P Chidambaram said. The move would cost Rs 3514 crore ($700 million) to the government exchequer.
In another decision, the Cabinet allowed state government to run up higher fiscal deficits.
The global financial sector crisis and recession in key global economies have pushed economic growth in India down to a six-year low. The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has pegged India's projected GDP growth for the year ending March 2009 at 7.1%, the slowest in six years and below the previous year's 9% rise. S&P, however, feels that India's medium term growth prospects remain strong.
Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could rise 68 points at the opening bell on Thursday, 26 February 2009.
European shares rose in early trade on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak, as investors digested a flood of results and welcomed a UK government insurance scheme for banks' assets. The key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were up by between 1.57% to 2.06%.
Asian stocks edged lower on Thursday after an early rally fizzled and investors found few incentives to make long-term bets with economic and corporate profit prospects worsening. Shanghai Composite index was down 3.87%. Key indices in Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong were down by between 0.04% to 1.15%.
US stocks made a strong intraday bounce back on Wednesday, 25 February 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been off nearly 200 points earlier in the session, ended the day down 80.05 points, or 1.09%, at 7270.89. US bank stocks rose after US officials unveiled details of the Treasury's plan to convert stakes to common stock, although the wider index remained anchored by a bleak housing report from The National Association of Realtors.
At 14:26 IST, the BSE 30-share Sensex was down 25.56 points, or 0.29%, to 8,876.32. At the day's high of 8,905.56 Sensex gained 3 points in early trade. At the day's low of 8,788.32 the Sensex lost 114.24 points in mid-morning trade.
The S&P CNX Nifty was down 1.45 points, or 0.05%, to 2,761.05.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak on BSE with 913 shares advancing as compared with 1,371 that declined. A total of 81 shares remained unchanged.
From the 30 share Sensex pack 17 stocks rose while rest fell.
Oil exploration and production firms rose as they stand to benefit from lower service tax on exploration & production activities which currently stands at 12.36%. India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 0.91% to Rs 1,277.50. The stock came off the day's low of Rs 1,252.40.
India's largest oil exploration firm by sales ONGC rose 0.57% as crude oil prices surged over 6% on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday, 25 February 2009.
Outsourcing focussed IT stocks gained as rupee tumbled against the dollar. India's second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies rose 1.05% to Rs 1,228.60 off the day's low of Rs 1,200.55. Its ADR slipped 0.65% overnight. India's third largest software services exporter, Wipro fell 1.36% to Rs 214.80, off the day's low of Rs 213.30. Its ADR fell 1.15% overnight
India's largest software services exporter by sales TCS rose 1.59% to Rs 487.25, off the day's low of Rs 477.20 after it said on Thursday Singapore Airlines had extended an IT services contract for three years.
The Indian rupee tumbled against the dollar as higher oil prices spurred demand for dollars from importers, while mixed Asian shares offered little comfort. The partially convertible rupee was at 50.24, weaker than Wednesday's close of 49.96/97. A weak rupee boosts revenues of IT firms in rupee terms as IT companies earn a lion's share of revenue from exports.
There have been concerns of cut back in technology spend by global firms amid a recession in the US economy and due to the global financial sector crisis. IT firms derive a lion's share of revenue from exports to US.
Some of the FMCG stocks rose on defensive buying. ITC, Dabur India, Marico, United Spirits and Tata Tea rose by between 0.17% to 3.3%.
Auto stocks extended recent gains on cut in excise duty by the government on Tuesday, 24 February 2009. India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors jumped 2.5% after company said bookings for its Rs 1-lakh car Naco will commence from the second week of April 2009. India's second largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Ashok Leyland rose 4.26%.
Other Auto stocks, Hero Honda Motors Maruti Suzuki India and Mahindra & Mahindra rose by between 1.42% to 1.79%.
Ashok Leyland on Wednesday, 25 February 2009 said it had decided to pass on the full benefit of the tax reduction to customers, and that the average prices of its vehicles will be lowered by Rs 16,000. Tata Motors also reportedly cut vehicle prices by about 2%.
However, price cut alone is unlikely to revive sluggish demand for trucks. Currently, the commercial vehicles (CV) industry is struggling to source retail finance as banks and other financial institutions have refrained from lending to the sector. According the latest report from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam), sales in the CV industry fell by almost 20% at 3,11,283 units for the period April 2008-January 2009 over the period April 2007-January 2008. High interest rates and a slowdown in the economy have impacted demand for trucks.
India's largest drugmaker by sales Ranbaxy Laboratories fell 17.25% after an investigation by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) found that Ranbaxy had falsified data and test results of medicines manufactured at its Himachal Pradesh (HP) facility to obtain marketing approval in the United States. The stock was the major loser from the Sensex pack.
India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro rose 0.69% on bagging new orders aggregating to Rs 1162 crore.
Banking stocks were volatile caught between fears of rising defaults in a weakening economy and hopes a further fall in interest rates may boost lending growth. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank fell 4.49% to Rs 325.15, off the day's low of Rs 318.60. Its American Depository Receipts (ADR) slipped 3.97% on Wednesday, 25 February 2009. Recently, Life Insurance Corporation of India hiked its stake in ICICI Bank by 2.04% to 9.38%.
India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank fell 0.6% to Rs 859, off the day's low of Rs 842.20. Its ADR fell 5.21% on Wednesday, 25 February 2009.
India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India fell 0.75% to Rs 1,025.55, off the day's low of Rs 1,015.50. The Indian government on Tuesday 24 February 2009 introduced a bill in Parliament which will enable it to increase the capital base of State Bank of India's subsidiaries and issue preference and bonus shares of these entities.
PSU bank stocks, Indian Overseas Bank, Union Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India fell by between 0.85% to 2.54%.
As per the latest data by the Reserve Bank of India, the banking sector lent over Rs 10000 crore in the fortnight ended 13 February 2009. Food credit rose Rs 547.82 crore, while non-food credit rose went up by Rs 9124.95 crore. This is the highest fortnightly growth in bank loans since November 2007.
Despite a steep cut in policy rates in India since October 2008, there has not been a commensurate reduction in lending rates by banks as fears of rising bad loans have made banks cautious in increasing advances.
India's largest realty player by market capitalization DLF slumped 0.81% to Rs 153.40 after the Income-Tax department reportedly ordered a special audit of the accounts of the real estate giant. Nevertheless, the stock came off the day's low of Rs 146.20.

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Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Market Outlook 26-2-2009

Market to open flat and expected to be choppy in the morning session as trading interest is not much among the traders. Being the F & O settlement day some kind of activity can be seen during the afternoon session. High volatile cannot be ruled out due to F & O expiry. Nifty if breaks below 2650,then lower level of 2500 to 2200 expected in the coming days. Avoid any long position at least for the time being.For today’s trading Nifty can take support at 2680 and 2650 levels and resistance at 2780 and 2810 levels and can direction for the days once the inflation data is out.

Market at close -25-2-2009

Key benchmark indices came off the day's high in mid-afternoon trade as banking stocks and index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) pared gains. However, auto stocks held firm. The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 137.34 points, or 1.55%, off close to 35 points from the day's high.
Recovery in global markets and government's second stimulus for the economy announced during trading hours on Tuesday, 24 February 2009, boosted the domestic bourses today, 25 February 2009.
However, volatility may rule the roost on the bourses in the near term ahead of the expiry of February 2009 derivatives contracts on Thursday, 26 February 2009. As per reports, rollover of Nifty positions from February 2009 series to March 2009 series stood at 54% while marketwide rollover of positions was 42%, as on Tuesday, 24 February 2009.
The government on Tuesday cut excise duty and service taxes in an effort to boost demand and revive growth in economy as it reels under the impact of the global economic crisis. Stand-in finance minister Pranab Mukherjee announced a cut in excise duty to 8% for items attracting 10% duty. The government also extended an across-the-board 4% reduction in excise duty, provided in the first stimulus package, beyond this fiscal-end. Service tax was slashed by 2% across-the-board.
While the reduction in service tax will put additional income in the hands of the consumer as there is a service tax component on many services, the impact of the cut to either to prop up consumer demand or the economy at large, will not be significant, according to a note by a domestic brokerage.
Rather, the latest fiscal stimulus by the government estimated at Rs 30,000 crore could further deteriorate government finances. Just before the announcement of the stimulus package, the global rating agency S&P revised the outlook on the long-term sovereign credit rating on India to negative from stable citing deterioration of the fiscal positions of the government. S&P expects government deficit, including off-budget measures such as oil and fertilizer bonds, to increase to 11.4% in the fiscal year ending 31 March, 2009, from 5.7% in the previous fiscal year.
Standard & Poor's has, nonetheless, affirmed its 'BBB-' long-term and 'A-3' short-term sovereign credit ratings on India.
European stocks recovered in early trade on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, after statements by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke caused a Wall Street rally. The key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were up by between 0.76% to 1.3%.
Asian stocks rose taking relief from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's statements against nationalisation of banks. Key benchmark indices in Singapore, Taiwan, China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan rose by between 0.05% to 2.65%.
US stocks surged on Tuesday, 24 February 2009, rebounding from 12-year lows, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a dose of relief when he signalled that nationalisation of big US banks was not on the cards.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 236.16 points, or 3.32 per cent, to 7,350.94. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 29.81 points, or 4.01 per cent, to 773.14. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 54.11 points, or 3.90 per cent, to 1,441.83.
The Fed chairman's remarks eased frayed nerves that the Treasury's capital-injection plan would hurt banks' shareholders and lead to nationalisation.
At 14:28 IST, the BSE 30-share Sensex was up 137.34 points, or 1.55%, to 8,958.53. At the day's high of 8,995.04 Sensex gained 172.98 points in afternoon trade. At the day's low of 8,913.44 the Sensex rose 91.38 points in early trade.
The S&P CNX Nifty was up 46.10 points, or 1.69%, to 2,780.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was strong on BSE with 1,327 shares advancing as compared with 1,011 that declined. A total of 75 shares remained unchanged.
From the 30 share Sensex pack, 25 stocks rose while rest fell. Reliance Infrastructure, Jaiprakash Associates, Bharti Airtel rose by between 2.1% to 5.35%.
Oil exploration and production firms rose as they stand to benefit from lower service tax on exploration & production activities which currently stands at 12.36%. India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.95% to Rs 1,277.95. The stock came off the day's high of Rs 1,285.
India's largest oil exploration firm by revenue ONGC rose 2.5%. Recent report said the company has discovered oil in the hydrocarbon rich Krishna Godavari basin. Other oil & gas stocks, Reliance Petroleum, Essar Oil, Cairn India and Gail India rose by between 0.05% to 4.18%.
Steel stocks rose on reports steel prices are set to come down by up to Rs 600 a tonne following the government cutting excise duty from 10% to 8%. Jindal Steel, JSW Steel, Steel Authority of India, Tata Steel, Bhushan Steel rose by between 2.29% 3.96%. The cut in prices may spur demand.
However, as steel firms will pass on the entire duty cut by way of reduction in prices, it will not have a favourable impact on profitability of steel firms, according to a note by the domestic brokerage mentioned above.
Other metal stocks also jumped. Sterlite Industries, Hindustan Zinc, Hindalco Industries, National Aluminum Company rose by between 1.61% to 5.22%.
Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren surged 4.26% on commissioning its state-of-art steel pipe mill in USA.
IT pivotals rose on US President Barak Obama's efforts to kickstart the US economy and on spurt in ADRs overnight. India's third largest software services exporter, Wipro rose 2.66% as Its ADR rose 2% overnight. India's second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies jumped 2.79% as its ADR rose 4.65% overnight. India's largest software services exporter by sales TCS gained 2.12%.
Obama on Tuesday night that the United States will emerge from the recession stronger than before. IT firms derive a lion's share of revenue from exports to US. There have been concerns of cut back in technology spend by global firms amid a recession in the US economy and due to the global financial sector crisis.
IT stocks rose despite a stronger rupee. The Indian rupee perked up on Wednesday on the back of firm Asian stock markets, but the near-term outlook remains subdued on economic worries. The partially convertible rupee was at 49.82 per dollar, above Tuesday's close of 49.87/88. A stronger rupee affects operating margin of IT firms negatively as they earn most of their revenues from exports.
Banking stocks rose on hopes the central bank would cut rates to support faltering growth as inflation fell to its lowest in more than 13 months in early February 2009, dropping below 4%, and on overnight jump in American Depository Receipts (ADRs). India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank rose 0.98% as its ADR rose 7.24% on Tuesday, 24 February 2009. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 2.53% to Rs 343.85 off the day's high of Rs 350. Its ADR rose 5.31% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Life Insurance Corporation of India has hiked its stake in ICICI Bank by 2.04% to 9.38%.
India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India rose 1.8% to Rs 1,047.50 off the day's high of Rs 1,058.70. The Indian government on Tuesday 24 February 2009 introduced a bill in Parliament which will enable it to increase the capital base of State Bank of India's subsidiaries and issue preference and bonus shares of these entities.
PSU bank stocks, Indian Overseas Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India rose by between 1.43% to 1.74%.
There are expectations that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will cut interest rates further to support faltering growth. A sharp fall in inflation has provided room for the central bank to cut rates. The global financial sector crisis and recession in key global economies have pushed economic growth in India down to a six-year low. The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has pegged India's projected GDP growth for the year ending March 2009 at 7.1%, the slowest in six years and below the previous year's 9% rise.
Despite a steep cut in policy rates in India since October 2008, there has not been a commensurate reduction in lending rates by banks as fears of rising bad loans have made banks cautious in increasing advances.
Meanwhile, following an across-the-board 2% reduction in service tax, bank customers will see a sharp reduction in credit card charges, loan processing charges and foreign exchange charges among others.
Auto stocks held firm on cut in excise duty by the government yesterday 24 February 2009. India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors jumped 5.22%. India's second largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Ashok Leyland rose 3.4%.
Other Auto stocks, Maruti Suzuki India, Hero Honda Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra rose by between 0.44% to 8.1%.
Ashok Leyland on Wednesday said it had decided to pass on the full benefit of the tax reduction to customers, and that the average prices of its vehicles will be lowered by Rs 16,000. Tata Motors also reportedly cut vehicle prices by about 2%.
However, price cut alone is unlikely to revive sluggish demand for trucks. Currently, the commercial vehicles (CV) industry is struggling to source retail finance as banks and other financial institutions have refrained from lending to the sector. According the latest report from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam), sales in the CV industry fell by almost 20% at 3,11,283 units for the period April 2008-January 2009 over the period April 2007-January 2008
High interest rates and a slowdown in the economy have impacted demand for trucks.
Television broadcasters rose as service tax on advertisement sales, which would now stand reduced following an across-the-board 2% reduction in service tax. NDTV and TV 18 India rose by between 2.27% to 3.36%.
From A group stocks, Century Textiles, Spice Communications, Mphasis, Mahindra & Mahindra and Educomp Solutions rose by between 6.86% to 13%. Balrampur Chini, Bajaj Holdings, Alstom Projects, Godrej Consumer, ABB fell by between 1.69% to 3.35%.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Market OutLook 25-2-2009

Markets to be volatile
Market is expected open higher and ahead of F& O expiry volatile movements will be there. Stock specific activity will be seen and still short position is there in the system and hence market is expected to go up. Traders can sell at higher level with strict stop loss. Technically Nifty can take support at 2700 and 2680 levels and resistance at 2760 and 2790 levels. Maintain a cautious approach in the coming days Nifty can fall further, If trades below 2700 continuously for two days free fall is expected and Nifty touch 2500 levels.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Market OutLook 24-2-2009

Market to trade weak
Based on the global cues, our market is expected to open weak and end in red for the day. As we are approaching the F & O expiry lot of volatile is expected .Traders can sell at higher levels. Technically if Nifty breaks below 2700 further weakness is expected in the near term and can touch 2500 in the coming days. Today Nifty can take support at 2680 and 2650 levels and have resistance at 2750 and 2780 levels.

Tax Saving Equity Instrument

Tax saving through Equity instrument
Due to the current global financial and economic crisis, stock prices are available at rock bottom price. In this situation one has to make some courage and utilize this excellent opportunity to invest in equity related tax saving instrument and also have the tax advantage under section 80 C.

Two options are available in this category:

Equity linked saving schemes (ELSS):
This is mutual fund scheme with a lock – in period of three years. Being equity linked, the risk is associated with these schemes. But the average return for the last five years under this category is almost 15%.
Being locked in for three years, the timing matters a lot as the market is almost at its bottom one can invest in the best performing fund under this category and can make a decent return for the next three years, as investment strategy invest in bulk for this financial year and take the SIP route for the next one year.
By opting for SIP route, you can get the rupee cost averaging benefit. This will allow you to buy more units when the market fall further and lesser units when the market is moving up.

Unit Linked Insurance Policy (ULIP): It is a combination of insurance and mutual fund schemes. It provides protection as well as investment option. It has a lock-in period of three years, but investment for period of 5-6 years can give a decent return. One can choose between Equity/Balance/Debt option based on the market condition and your risk profile. Switching options is also available and if utilized this facility properly, it can help you in achieving higher returns.

In this global economic grapple with slow down or recession, having equity exposure may not look as a prudent investment option. But remember, once the economy revives sooner or later, equity related instruments will be the multi bagger.

As we are in the end of the financial year and those wanting to save tax under section 80 C can invest in Equity Linked Saving Scheme or Unit Linked Insurance Policy.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Gold Zooms -21-2-2009

Gold Zooms to $ 1000 and above
The global financial and economic crisis has boosted the buying for the yellow metal as safe investments for investors and has crossed the $1000 per ounce and continue to hold this level. The MCX gold April istrading at Rs 16000 per 10 grams and expected to touch Rs 16500 levels. This sharp rally has brought gold to a over bought zone, Hence book partial profits and buy on dips will be the best strategy for the time being.

Market at close - 20-2-2009

Sell-off in Heavyweights
Fresh selling in index pivotals pulled key benchmark indices to day's low in mid-afternoon trade. The barometer index BSE Sensex which had fallen below the psychologically vital 9,000 level earlier in the day, fell below 8,800 level in mid-afternoon trade. The Sensex was down 248.23 points, or 2.75%, to 8,797.65. It came off the lower level after a sharp slide. The Sensex was off 34.57 points from the day's low.
The selling on the domestic bourses today, 20 February 2009, was broad based with all the sectoral indices on BSE in the red. Weak start of European bourses and weak US index futures weighted on the domestic bourses.
The market opened on a weak note on weak global markets. An intermittent recovery from lower level was witnessed during the day. The recovery from lower level in early afternoon trade was triggered by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee's comments that the government will provide additional resources to stimulate demand and provide more help to key sectors such as housing, infrastructure and real estate. However, the intraday recovery proved short-lived as the market came off the higher level later.
The government has so far announced two stimulus packages including tax cuts and the capital injections for banks to shield the domestic economy from the impact of the global financial sector crisis and recession in key global economies.
Meanwhile Commerce minister Kamal Nath is likely to announce an export booster package later this month which would address some of the crucial concerns of the exporters. The sops under consideration include simplification of rules for service tax refund, extension of time given to exporters to meet export obligation and an increase in rates of input duty reimbursement schemes like drawback and DEPB for some sectors.
But trading in US index futures which showed the Dow could fall 112 points at the opening bell on Friday, 20 February 2009 and sustained selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), whose outflow in calendar year 2009 has totaled Rs 5094.30 crore (till 18 February 2009), weighed on the sentiment on the bourses after the interim budget 2009-10 presented in parliament on Monday, 16 February 2009 proved to be a non-event disappointing marketmen.
According to provisional data on NSE, FIIs were net sellers worth Rs 363.48 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 108.44 crore on Thursday, 19 February 2009.
European shares fell sharply on Friday, 20 February 2009, with banks the worst performers, as investors continued to fret about the outlook for the global economy. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were down by between 1.86% and 2.92%.
Asian markets declined today, 20 February 2009, after Wall Street tumbled to six-year low on Thursday, 19 February 2009, as a gloomy US unemployment data reinforced fears the world's largest economy is in a severe slump. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan were down by between 1.76% and 3.72%. However, China's Shanghai Composite rose 1.54%.
US markets tumbled on Thursday, 19 February 2009 on mounting concerns about the fate of major banks and signs that the recession is deepening, pushing the Dow to its lowest level in more than six years. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 89.68 points, or 1.19%, at 7,465.95. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 9.48 points, or 1.2%, at 778.94. The Nasdaq Composite index shed 25.15 points, or 1.71%, at 1,442.82.
US government data showed a record number of continuing unemployment claims, at nearly 5 million, and a surprisingly sharp drop in manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic states.
At 14:25 IST, the BSE 30-share Sensex was down 248.23 points, or 2.75%, to 8,797.65. The Sensex opened 98.85 points lower at 8,943.78, also its day's high. At the day's low of 8,763.08, the Sensex lost 279.55 points in mid-afternoon trade.
The S&P CNX Nifty lost 68.60 points, or 2.46%, to 2,720.05
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak on BSE with 1653 shares declining as compared with 620 that advanced. A total of 95 shares remained unchanged.
BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 1899 crore by 14:25 IST as compared with Rs 1374 crore by 13:25 IST.
All the members from the 30-share Sensex pack were trading lower. TCS (down 5.11%), Wipro (down 3.83%), and Mahindra & Mahindra (down 3.41%), though down, outperformed the Sensex on defensive buying.
Banking stocks were hard hit as fears of rising defaults in a weakening economy and overnight fall in American Depository Receipts (ADRs), offset hopes of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank plunged 7.59% to Rs 334.40 on a 1.36% fall in its ADR on Thursday, 19 February 2009. It was the top loser from the Sensex pack.
India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank lost 2.12% to Rs 866.10 as its ADR fell 0.26% on Thursday, 19 February 2009. After market hours on 19 February 2009, the bank on a private placement basis issued unsecured, non-convertible, redeemable subordinated bonds in the nature of debentures towards tier - II capital as with upper tier - II bonds for an amount aggregating Rs 200 crore and lower tier - II bonds for an amount aggregating Rs 150 crore.
India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India shed 1.85% to Rs 1040.10.
India's largest dedicated housing finance company by total income Housing Development Finance Corporation fell 3.67% to Rs 1341.50 as the company expects 2009/10 loan growth at about 20%, slightly lower than the previous year's rise, as property demand falls.
Inflation rose at the lowest level in 13-months at 3.92% in the year through 7 February 2009, much lower than previous week's annual rise of 4.39%, data released by the government on Thursday, 19 February 2009, showed. Falling inflation provides room for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates further to shield the domestic economy from the global financial sector crisis and recession in key global economies.
Only on Wednesday, 18 February 2009, the Reserve Bank of India Governor D Subbarao said that there is room to cut interest rates further. The statement comes at a time when the market is expecting further action from the central bank.
Market men see a bigger role for RBI to shield the domestic economy from the global financial sector crisis and recession in key global economies in the coming months as election code will be in force by the end of the month which means that there cannon be any policy action from the government.
India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) shed 3.69% to Rs 1245.90 on fears a worsening global economy will hit demand for petrochemicals.
India's second largest cellular services provider by sales Reliance Communications (RCom) slumped 5.10% to Rs 154.65 on reports the government on Thursday, 19 February 2009 reportedly informed the Parliament that it will do a special audit on the books of RCom and its subsidiaries over allegations that the telecommunications company had diverted revenues earned from its mobile services to a subsidiary to bring down the total amount it had to pay to the government as licence fee and spectrum charge.
India's largest private sector power generation firm by sales Reliance Infrastructure slipped 3.70% to Rs 489.80. The finance ministry late evening on 18 February 2009 reportedly told Parliament that companies Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Petroleum were being investigated for alleged violation of norms governing insider trading and overseas borrowings, respectively. Reliance Petroleum fell 2.01% to Rs 78.10
Satyam Computer Service advanced 1.62% to Rs 47.05 after it won approval from the Company Law Board (CLB) to bring on board a strategic investor needed to ensure the survival of the scam-tainted software outsourcer.
But India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro fell 3.38% to Rs 619.10 after its chief A M Naik said it will decide on Satyam deal after evaluating the Company Law Board's order on the bidding process for the fraud-hit IT firm. L&T is the single largest shareholder in Satyam with a 12% stake.
India's largest power equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electrical (Bhel) fell 2.11% to Rs 1353.10. The company has reportedly signed an agreement to float a joint venture with US-based technology provider General Electric (GE) to manufacture diesel locomotives for Indian Railways.
India's largest copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries India slipped 3.27% to Rs 248.10 as copper stockpiles climbed on the London Metal Exchange again and a grim global economic picture stoked demand concerns.
Educomp Solutions tumbled 13.73% to Rs 1739.10 after reports the market regulator Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is probing the dealings in the shares of education software firm on bourses.
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Thursday, February 19, 2009

Market Outlook 20-2-2009

With the negative global cues our market is expected to open weak. Huge volatility is expected due long holiday ahead and the market will open on next Tuesday only.
Market expected to end in red for the day. Technically Nifty can take support at 2770 and 2750 levels and resistance at 2810 and 2826 levels. Nifty below 2750 will fall sharply.

Market At Close-19-2-2009

Key benchmark indices ended slightly higher in what was a lackluster trading session in sync with range-bound activity around global indices. Trading was lacklustre with low volumes. The BSE 30-share Sensex provisionally rose 28.38 points, or 0.31%, off 67.71 points from the day's high but 65.76 up points from the day's low. For the second running day, the BSE Sensex settled above the psychologically important 9,000 mark after alternatively moved above and below that level in intra-day trade.
Rate cut hopes and the US index futures data showing the Dow could rise 76 points at the opening bell on Thursday, 19 February 2009 supported the market. Inflation rose at the lowest level in 13-months at 3.92% in the year through 7 February 2009, much lower than previous week's annual rise of 4.39%, data released by the government today, 19 February 2009, showed.
Falling inflation has provided room for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates further to shield the domestic economy from the global financial sector crisis and recession in key global economies. Just yesterday, 18 February 2009, the Reserve Bank of India Governor D Subbarao said that there is room to cut interest rates further. The statement comes at a time when the market is expecting further action from the central bank.
Market men see a bigger role for RBI to shield the domestic economy from the global financial sector crisis and recession in key global economies in the coming months as election code will be in force by the end of the month which means that there cannon be any policy action from the government.
Meanwhile, Commerce minister Kamal Nath is likely to announce an export booster package later this month which would address some of the crucial concerns of the exporters. The sops under consideration include simplification of rules for service tax refund, extension of time given to exporters to meet export obligation and an increase in rates of input duty reimbursement schemes like drawback and DEPB for some sectors.
European markets rose with food producers adding most points to the index after Nestle posted 2008 results and beat sales forecasts. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were up by between 0.51% and 0.66%.
Asian shares were mixed today, 19 February 2009. Key benchmark indices in China, Japan, China and Taiwan were up by between 0.06% and 0.78%. However indices in South Korea and Singapore fell 0.55% and 1.31% respectively.
The Bank of Japan said it will buy 1 trillion yen ($10.7 billion) in corporate bonds from financial institutions and extend lending programs to prevent a shortage of credit from deepening the recession. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his colleagues said the bank will buy bonds rated A or higher from 4 March to 30 September 2009. The board kept the overnight lending rate at unchanged at 0.1% in a unanimous vote.
US markets ended mixed on Wednesday, 18 February 2009 as gloomy outlook from Fed and dismal housing data overshadowed government's Housing Relief Plan. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 3.03 points, or 0.04%, to 7,555.63 while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 0.75 points, or 0.10%, to 788.42. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 2.69 points, or 0.18%, to 1,467.97.
The US Federal Reserve cut its outlook for the performance of the battered US economy on Wednesday, 18 February 2009 saying it now expects a contraction of between 0.5 and 1.3% this year. Back in mid-November 2008, the Fed projected that 2009 could see anything from a contraction of 0.2% up to expansion of 1.1%. The US central bank also offered a bleaker picture for the employment situation. It said the jobless rate in the US is now expected to reach between 8.5 and 8.8% this year. That is up from the previous forecast of between 7.1 and 7.6%. The US unemployment rate currently sits at 7.6%
Housing starts slumped by a worse than expected 16.8% in January 2009 to 4,66,000 units, the lowest since the Commerce Department started keeping records in 1959. Meanwhile, the number of permits issued for new buildings also fell to an all-time low, down 4.8% to 521,000 units.
President Barack Obama unveiled a $75-billion mortgage relief plan on Tuesday, which would provide incentives to mortgage lenders to help borrowers reduce their payments. In a bid to help restore confidence, the US Treasury Department will also double the size of current financial support to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 28.38 points, or 0.31%, to 9,043.56, as per provisional closing. The Sensex opened 19.72 points higher at 9,034.90. At the day's high of 9,111.27, the Sensex gained 96.09 points in early trade. At the day's low of 8,977.80, the Sensex lost 37.38 points in afternoon trade.
The S&P CNX Nifty rose 17.20 points, or 0.62%, to 2,793.35 as per provisional closing
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative, on BSE with 1290 shares declined as compared with 1091 that advanced. A total of 104 shares remained unchanged. The breadth was much stronger earlier in the day.
Turnover was dull on BSE amounting to of Rs 2422 crore as compared to Rs 2,883.85 crore yesterday, 18 February 2009.
Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 18 gained while the rest slipped. Grasim (up 2.52%), Reliance Infrastructure (up 2.10%), and HDFC (up 1.96%), edged higher from the Sensex pack.
ACC (down 2.29%), Hindustan Unilever (down 1.20%), and Jaiprakash Associates (down 0.29%), edged lower from the Sensex pack.
IT stocks gained as rupee hovered near 2-month low. India's third largest software services exporter, Wipro jumped 5.24% to Rs 220 despite a 1.11% fall in ADR on Wednesday, 18 February 2009. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack.
India's second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies rose 2.40% as its ADR gained 0.24% on Wednesday, 18 February 2009. India's largest software services exporter by sales TCS rose 1.57% and India's fifth largest IT exporter by sales HCL Technologies rose 0.32%.
However Satyam Computer Services slumped 5.25% to Rs 46 on reports the restatement of accounts of the software developer may take more than six months as it includes auditing accounts of the past three-to-four years and involves complicated transactions.
The partially convertible rupee was at 49.75 per dollar, stronger from Wednesday's close of 49.92/93. Today's recovery in rupee followed a sharp fall in the past two days that had pulled it to a two-month low. A weaker rupee boosts operating margins of IT firms which earn a lion's share of revenue from exports.
Auto shares rose on hopes lower interest rates will boost sales which are largely driven by finance. Mahindra & Mahindra (up 1.92%), Maruti Suzuki India (up 2.27%), and Tata Motors (up 0.60%), edged higher from the auto pack.
India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 0.13% to Rs 1293.10. The stock moved in a band of Rs 1281.90 – Rs 1309.90 in the day. Reports on Wednesday, 18 February 2009 RIL may restart crude oil production from its predominantly gas-rich KG-D6 fields next month aided early gains which fizzled out later on profit booking. The field in KG-D6 had commenced crude oil production in September 2008 and had produced over 790,000 barrels up to 9 December 2008, when output ceased due to equipment failure.
Banking shares turned mixed after a firm start despite latest data showing fall in inflation which raised hopes of an interest rate cut. India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank was up 0.96% to Rs 885 even as its ADR slipped 2.72% on Wednesday, 18 February 2009. The stock eased from day's high of Rs 892.70.
However India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank fell 2.21% to Rs 361.20 on a 2.52% slide in its ADR on Wednesday, 18 February 2009. The stock had hit a day's high of Rs 378.75 in early trade. India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India lost 1.27% to Rs 1057.15, after striking high of Rs 1093.45 in intra-day trade.
India's largest private sector aluminium maker by sales Hindalco Industries fell 2.89% to Rs 40.35. The company reportedly plans to raise Rs 25000 crore pledging assets and future earnings of its units.
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Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Market Outlook 19-2-2009

Market to open flat and will be volatile for the day. Yesterday market recover due to short covering by trader and I hope this rise will be able to sustain in the coming days. Today nifty has support at 2750 and 2700 levels and resistance 2827 and 2880 levels. Be cautious at higher levels.

Gold Zooms

Gold zooms to Rs 15,650
February 18, 2009
In these trying times when the global economy is reeling under a recession and investors are losing billions in the stock markets, gold has proved its mettle as a healthy investment option.
The price of the yellow metal surged to set a new peak at Rs 15,650 per 10 gram in opening trade in New Delhi on February 19 on brisk buying triggered by a firming global trend.
The precious metal, which is on a record setting spree for the last few sessions, shot up by Rs 230 to Rs 15,650 per 10 gram in tandem with its continuous rise in Asia since July.
Source:Rediffnews

Nifty gains in choppy session-18-2-2009

Key benchmark indices saw divergent trend in what was a highly volatile trading session. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries influenced Sensex's journey throughout the day. Weak global cues played the spoilsport pulling the market lower for third straight day. Recovery in some Asian indices, higher US index futures, and comments of the central bank governor which stoked expectations of further cut in interest rates boosted the domestic bourses in intra-day trade. The BSE 30-share Sensex provisionally fell 16.10 points, or 0.17%, above 89.82 points from the day's low but off 93.55 points from the day's high.
Volatility was high. The market tumbled in opening trade mirroring a fall in global stocks caused by worsening world economic situation and worries about the global banking system. Volatility was high with the market alternatively moving between positive and negative zone. But the market soon cut losses as investors chased bargains in the battered market that had dropped 6.2% in the previous two sessions on disappointment from Monday's (16 February 2009) interim general budget and on weak global stocks. It weakened again later on weakness in global stocks.
The market cut losses in early afternoon trade on higher US index futures. It moved into positive zone after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor D Subbarao said the impact of the global recession on India was sharper than expected. His comments stoked speculation of more interest rates cuts to shield the domestic economy from the global financial sector crisis and recession in key global economies.
Market men see a bigger role for RBI in the coming months as election code will be in force by the end of the month which means that there cannon be any policy action from the government. Once the model code of conduct comes into force after the announcement of poll dates, any announcement by the government will be subject to Election Commission's scrutiny.
The EC is likely to announce the poll date for the parliamentary elections by the end of this month. The elections are likely to be held in April-May 2009
Meanwhile, the Centre today sought parliament's approval for Rs 10765 crore in extra spending for this fiscal year. In its interim budget the government said the fiscal deficit is seen at 6% of GDP at end 2008-09, far higher than the initial target of 2.5% set for the current year.
But the deteriorating fiscal position of the government has raised fears of downgrade of India's sovereign rating by international ratings agencies. Both Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings have already indicated that they are likely to lower the country's credit rating. India's fiscal deficit is one of the highest in the world and the two stimulus packages announced in recent months to shore up sagging growth have put pressure on finances, while tax collections have slowed sharply. Standard and Poor's currently rates India's local currency rating at BBB- (minus), the lowest investment-grade level, with a stable outlook. Fitch has a similar rating but with a negative outlook, while Moody's pegs it at one notch lower at speculative grade.
If India's sovereign rating is downgraded, it will significantly raise the cost of borrowing of Indian firms in global markets - something the government had banked on to ease the domestic credit crunch. The financial meltdown had already reduced these inflows; a rating downgrade will put an end to them altogether.
European shares turned negative as banks gave up early gains. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were down by between 0.80% and 1.14%.
Some Asian indices moved into green from red. Hang Seng rose 0.55%, Straits Times advanced 0.80% and Taiwan Weighted index gained 0.15%. But Key benchmark indices in Japan, South Korea, and China were down by between 1.24% and 4.72%. Earlier in the day, there was an across-the-board decline in Asian markets on deepening economic gloom and on fears about the global finance sector.
Trading in US index futures indicated the Dow could rise 12, cutting sharp gains, points at the opening bell on Wednesday, 18 February 2009
US markets tumbled on Tuesday, 17 February 2009 with the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials closing at near three-month lows, as regional manufacturing data signaled the recession is worsening while fresh worries about European banks underscored the global nature of the downturn.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 297.81 points, or 3.79% to 7,552.60. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 63.70 points, or 4.15%, to close at 1,470.66 and the S&P 500 fell 37.67 points, or 4.6%, to 789.17. A report showing that manufacturing production in New York state fell to a record low in February stirred worries about the deepening recession and added to fears that the new US economic stimulus package won't be a quick fix.
US President Barack Obama signed the $787 billion economic stimulus bill into law on Tuesday, but investors are fearful that the plan will not blunt the impact of the recession soon enough. The White House hopes the package will save or create 3.5 million jobs.
Obama is likely today, 18 February 2009, outline another big piece of his recovery effort later - a $50 billion plan to help stem foreclosures in Arizona, one of the states hardest hit by the mortgage defaults that are at the center of the nation's economic woes.
Meanwhile the US auto industry needs even more help from the government to survive than originally thought. General Motors on Tuesday said it could need up to $30 billion from the Treasury Department to keep operating. Included in that amount is $13.4 billion the company has already received. Previously, GM had said it could need as much as $18 billion. General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC said Tuesday they will need billions more in government loans than they predicted just two months ago.
Stocks fell across Europe on Tuesday, 17 February 2009 on deepening financial crisis in eastern Europe as fears escalate that troubles in former communist countries could wallop western Europe's already-stressed banking system. Moody's Investors Services on Tuesday warned that banks in Eastern Europe with large loan books faced downgrades and their parent banks' ratings could also weaken.
Closer home, Commerce minister Kamal Nath is likely to announce an export booster package later this month which would address some of the crucial concerns of the exporters. The sops under consideration include simplification of rules for service tax refund, extension of time given to exporters to meet export obligation and an increase in rates of input duty reimbursement schemes like drawback and DEPB for some sectors.
The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 16.10 points, or 0.17%, to 9,019.44, as per provisional closing. The Sensex opened points 95.62 lower at 8,939.38. At the day's low of 8,929.62, the Sensex lost 105.38 points in early trade. At the day's high of 9,112.99, the Sensex rose 77.99 points in mid-afternoon trade.
However the S&P CNX Nifty rose 5.45 points, or 0.20%, to 2,775.95 as per provisional closing
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative on BSE with 1377 shares declining as compared with 994 that advanced. A total of 117 shares remained unchanged.
BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 2791 crore as compared to Rs 2190 crore by 14:25 IST.
Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 16 declined while the rest gained.
Rate sensitive realty shares reversed early losses on hopes lower interest rates will spur housing demand mostly driven by finance.
India's largest real estate firm by market capitalisation DLF jumped 9.57% to Rs 162 on high volumes of 87.92 lakh shares, rebounding from day's low of Rs 142.10. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack. As per reports a consortium of private equity funds, including UAE's leading financial institution Taib Bank, the Blackstone group and JP Morgan, are in advanced negotiations with promoters of the DLF to pick up a majority stake worth around $400-450 million in affiliate company DLF Assets.
India's largest small-car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India advanced 4.39% to Rs 624.80 on reports it expects sales growth for the ongoing month to be around 5-7%. The company achieved total sales of 7,64,842 units for the 2007-2008 fiscal. It sold 71,779 vehicles in January 2009, its highest-ever monthly sales. India's top truck maker by sales Tata Motors rose 1.75% to Rs 133.80 after its ADR rose 1.8% on the NSE on Tuesday, 17 February 2009.
India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) gained 1.88% to Rs 1291.45, off day's high of Rs 1316. Earlier the stock rebounded sharply from day's low of Rs 1248. RIL may reportedly restart crude oil production from its predominantly gas-rich KG-D6 fields next month. The field in KG-D6 had commenced crude oil production in September 2008 and had produced over 790,000 barrels up to 9 December 2008, when output ceased due to equipment failure.
Cement companies gained on hopes of higher demand after the interim budget 2009-10 presented in parliament on Monday, 16 February 2009 allocated Rs 40,900 crore to the the Bharat Nirman scheme, a time-bound plan for building rural infrastructure.
ACC (up 4.12%), India Cement (up 3.05%), UltraTech Cement (up 2.89%), and Shree Cement (up 4.27%), and gained on from the cement pack.
India's second largest software exporter by sales, Infosys Technologies rose 0.33%. The company reportedly sees a 5% cut in IT budgets of its clients in Europe this year
However most banking and financial shares remained subdued on worries about the global banking system. India's largest dedicated housing finance company by total income Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) slumped 4.36% to Rs 1370.
India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank lost 3.99% to Rs 370.50 on a 13.63% slide in its ADR on Wednesday, 17 February 2009. India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India slipped 2.72% to Rs 1069.80.
India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank rose 0.43% to Rs 884 despite its ADR sliding 7.72% on Tuesday, 17 February 2009.
Moody's Investors Services on Tuesday threatened to downgrade euro zone banks with significant exposure to the weakening economies in Eastern and Central Europe, and Standard & Poor's said it may review emerging Europe bank ratings.
India's second largest private sector power generation firm by market capitalisation Reliance Infrastructure fell 0.80% to Rs 514.85 after reports the junior Finance Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal said the company violated India's overseas borrowing and foreign-exchange rules. India's Union Directorate of Enforcement is now examining the violation for necessary action, Bansal said.
According to provisional data on NSE, FIIs were net sellers worth Rs 462.21 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 278.42 crore on Tuesday, 17 February 2009.
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Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Market Outlook 18-2-2009

On global cues market is expected to open weak. Expect some kind of recovery for the day in the second session of trading. As the interim was turned to be non event the market is heading for big sell off in the coming days and this time can go below the previous October levels.Traders should avoid any long position and sell on very rise and be cautious in the present market conditions. The two days fall in reliance industries indicates further weakness in the counter. Nifty below 2700 is very weak in the coming days.

DISCLAIMER : Stock trading involves high risk and one can lose Substantial amount of money.The recommendations made herein Do not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any of the Securities mentioned. No representations can be made that recommendations contained herein will be profitable or they will Not result in losses. Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions. The information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The above recommendations are based on technical analysis only. NOTE WE HAVE NO HOLDINGS IN ANY OF STOCKS RECOMMENDED ABOVE.

Market Commentary 17-02-2009

Disappointment from the interim budget and weak global stocks pulled the market sharply lower for the second day in a row. The only solace for the investors was the barometer index BSE Sensex holding the psychological 9,000 level. The index fell below the crucial 9,000 level in late trade, but soon recovered. The Sensex provisionally lost 263.77 points, or 2.83%.
Selling was broad-based with realty, metals and bank stocks among major losers. Gains in select FMCG shares supported the indices at lower levels.
Not a single new scheme or tax initiative was announced in the interim budget unveiled by the acting Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee during trading hours on Monday, 16 February 2009, disappointing the stock market. The market was expecting government to offer tax sops and sector-specific stimulus package for the economy in the interim budget.
Meanwhile, a concern among the marketmen is that the deteriorating government finances may force rating agencies to downgrade India's sovereign rating. If India's sovereign rating is downgraded, it will significantly raise the cost of borrowing of Indian firms in global markets - something the government had banked on to ease the domestic credit crunch. The financial meltdown had already reduced these inflows; a rating downgrade will put an end to them altogether.
India's rising fiscal deficit is seen at 6% of GDP at end 2008-09, much higher than the initial target of 2.5%. For the year 2009-10, it is expected to be 5.5% of GDP.
European shares hit a two-week trough in early trade on Tuesday, led lower by banking and energy stocks, as investors remained jittery over the health of the global economy and disappointing corporate results. Key indices in France, Germany and UK were down by 1.42% to 1.81%.
Asian markets, which opened before Indian market, fell as dismal Japanese growth data and fresh concerns about the financial sector fanned worries about the deteriorating global economy. Key indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan closed down between 2.17% to 4.11%. A latest survey showed Japanese manufacturers' confidence remains mired near record lows.
Data showed on Monday that Japan's economy shrank by 3.3% in the fourth quarter, its worst since the 1974 oil crisis. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said on Tuesday he would resign after being forced to deny he was drunk at a G7 news conference, dealing a fresh blow to unpopular Prime Minister Taro Aso in an election year.
Trading in US index futures indicated the Dow could fall 121 points at the opening bell on Tuesday, 17 February 2009. US markets were closed on Monday, 16 February 2009 for President's Day holiday.
Countless economic stimulus packages and open promises to take more action by policymakers around the world have so far all been met with disappointment by investors, with not even the $787 billion pledged by Washington making a dent in negative sentiment.
As per provisional closing, the BSE 30-share Sensex fell 263.77 points, or 2.83%, to 9,041.68. The Sensex opened 92.05 points lower at 9,213.40, which was also the day's high so far. The indices slowly succumbed to selling pressure to slip at the day's low of 8,994.34, losing 311.11 points at the fag end of the trading session.
The S&P CNX Nifty dropped 71.85 points, or 2.52%, to 2776.65.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak on BSE with 1707 shares declining as compared with 695 that rose. A total of 101 shares remained unchanged.
BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 2384 crore, lower than Rs 2,908.21 on Monday, 16 February 2009.
The BSE Realty index fell 5.10%. BSE Consumer Durables index (down 4.94%), BSE Bankex (down 4.32%), BSE Metal index (down 4.20%), BSE IT index (down 3.12%), and BSE Oil & Gas index (down 3.01%). All these indices underperfomed the Sensex.
BSE Power index (down 2.56%), BSE PSU index (down 2.51%), BSE Capital Goods index (down 1.91%), BSE Auto index (down 1.68%), BSE FMCG index (down 0.74%), and BSE Healthcare index (down 0.73%), outperformed the Sensex.
World's sixth largest steel maker Tata Steel slumped 6.98%. An official from Standard & Poor's was recently quoted by media as saying that Tata Steel's liquidity is weak on a consolidated basis. The report also said the firm could face significant refinancing risk considering the near term pressure on Tata Steel UK's financial agreements which involves about more than 3 billion pounds of debt.
India's largest aluminimum maker by sales Hindalco Industries fell 5.19%. Hindalco proposes to use its share premium reserves to write off expenses incurred by the company on its international acquisition and domestic expansion. The company's board has approved a proposal to this effect. The company has a share premium reserve of around Rs 8,500 crore.
ndia's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries fell 4.17%. The stock has 15.59% weightage on the Sensex. The stock fell on profit booking as the government did not re-introduce an anticipated seven-year income-tax holiday for natural gas producers in the interim budget.
Petroleum Minister, Murli Deora, hinted some days back that the government may consider granting seven-year tax holiday for natural gas producers in an attempt to make the next round of Nelp (New Exploration and Licensing Policy) bidding attractive. The finance ministry had withdrawn the tax holiday last year.
India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank which has 6.84% weightage on the Sensex, slipped 5.90%.
India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra slipped 5.10%. The stock was in demand recently after its board last week approved transfer of land systems business and naval systems business of its Mahindra Defence Systems division into separate companies. M&M is reportedly targetting revenue of of about Rs 2000 crore in five years from two defense units. The defence business currently has revenue of about Rs 100 crore. The separation is expected to create more value for its shareholders through a greater focus on them.
India's largest realty firm by market capitalisation DLF down 5.29%. Facing acute liquidity crunch and poor buyer sentiments, DLF was recently reported to have stopped work on two of its biggest mid-income housing projects. The move comes after the developer stalled at least a quarter of its commercial projects in the past few months. DLF has reportedly halted construction at DLF New Town Heights in Gurgaon Sector 90 and Express Greens in sector M1 in Manesar, both in Haryana. The two projects were launched in January and August 2008, respectively.
India's second largest listed telecom operator by sales Reliance Communication slipped 4.73%. Promoter company AAA Communication, has pledged 27.23 crore shares, representing 13.2% of its equity capital. As of December 2008, AAA Communication held 63.4% stake in RCom, while total promoter holding in the company stood at 66.1%.
Tata Power Company (down 3.83%), HDFC (down 4.87%), Sterlite Industries (down 3.45%), Maruti Suzuki (down 3.64%), and Infosys Technologies (down 3.48%), were the other major Sensex stocks that declined.
India's largest drug maker by sales Ranbaxy Laboratories declined after a firm start. The stock fell 0.17% to Rs 204.90, off day's high of 209.90. Recently some reports suggested the company got US drug regulator's nod to sell acute migraine drug sumatriptan in the US. Sumatriptan is a generic of GlaxoSmithKline's Imitrex, which has sales of nearly at $1.1 billion in the US.
Cigarette maker ITC was the only gainer in the Sensex, rising 0.25%. The stock supported the Sensex at lower level as ITC has 7.15% or third-highest weightage in the Sensex.
Information technology firm Hexaware Technologies jumped 7.02% to Rs 31.20, on reporting a net profit of Rs 36.76 crore in the year ended December 2008 as against a net loss of Rs 10.76 crore in the year ended December 2007. Net sales rose 6.3% to Rs 498.17 crore in the year ended December 2008 over the year ended December 2007. The company announced the results after market hours on Monday, 16 February 2009.
Multiplexe operator Cinemax India slumped 8.33% to Rs 34.65 after the company said its promoters have pledged more than 1.14 crore shares or 41% stake in the company.
Textiles firm Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company lost nearly 3.53% to Rs 146 after the company said its promoters have pledged more than 49.72 lakh shares or 12.88% stake in the company.
Shares of Temptation Foods (down 10%) and Kohinoor Foods (20%) extended losses to hit the lower circuit for the second straight day after the market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India pulled up Temptation Foods for falsifying shareholding information. According to the SEBI order, Temptation Foods misled investors by providing false declaration to the stock exchanges that it holds over 31.80 lakh shares representing 11.98% stake in Kohinoor Foods.
The Sensex had tumbled 3.4% on Monday as there was not a single new scheme or tax initiative in the interim budget. Acting Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced some sops for millions of rural voters but there were no sector-specific tax sops for the industry hit by the global economic slowdown.
According to provisional data on NSE, FIIs were net sellers worth Rs 45.33 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 189.52 crore on Monday, 16 February 2009.
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Monday, February 16, 2009

Market OutLook 17-02-2009

As there was nothing to stimulus the economy and more over there will be no good news or policy announcements for the next 3- 4 months till then the market will take the global cues.Over all the market look weak in the short term.Nifty below 2810 looks weak for the day and can take support at 2760 levels.

Highlights of Interim Budget

Highlights of Interim Budget:
The major highlights of interim budget is as follows:
Economy is expected to grow at 7.1 % this fiscal (FY09)
• FY09 Fiscal deficit seen at 6 % of GDP Vs estimate of 2.5%
• FY09 Revenue deficit at 4.4 % of GDP Vs estimate of 1%.
• FY09 Revised estimates of spending at Rs 9 lakh cr vs Rs 7.5 lakh cr
• FY09 Plan expenditure revised to Rs 2.8 lakh cr from Rs 2.4 lakh cr
• Apr-Nov 2008 FDI registered at $23.3 billion
• FY10 Budget revenue deficit seen at 4% of GDP, fiscal deficit at 5.5% of
GDP
• Allocation for Defence increased to Rs 1,41,703 crore which includes Rs
54,824 for Capital Expenditure.
• Major subsidies including food, fertilizer and petroleum estimated at Rs
95,579 crore.
• Government to recapitalize the public sector banks over the next two
years to enable them to maintain Capital to Risk Weighted Assets Ratio
(CRAR) of 12 per cent.
• Interest subvention of 2 % on pre and post shipment credit for certain
employment oriented sectors i.e. Textiles (including handlooms &
handicrafts), Carpets, Leather, Gem & Jewellery, Marine products and
SMEs extended beyond March 31, 2009 till September 30, 2009 involving an
additional financial outgo of Rs.500 crore.
• The gross tax revenue of the government during 2008-09 is likely to fall
short by about Rs 60,000 crore over the budgeted estimates.
• India Infrastructure Finance Company will raise Rs 10,000 crore from the
market by end of March 2009. India Infrastructure Finance Company will
finance 60% of commercial loans in private public partnership in critical
projects. The organisation is to raise Rs 30,000 crore from the market in
the next fiscal year.
Overall The Finance Minister in its interim budget did not announce any major sops
for ailing industries or changes in tax structure.
http://content.apollosindhoori.com/research/researchsec.aspx

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Market Outlook 16-02-2009

Market to be voilatile on account of interim budget.expect sops for Infrastructure sector,Reality sector and export orient units.special sops for textile , gems & jewellery.Mid-Cap stocks looks good for short term.
Nifty above 2960-2970 levels looks very billish.
stocks to watch
Century textiles
BRFL
Rajesh exports
DLF

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Market Outlook 13-02-2009

Markets are expected open strong based on global cues and can close higher for the day.Mid cap stocks looks good for short term investments.For nifty support is at 2880,2850 and resistance at 2925,2960 above 2970 don't remain short in the market.
Stocks to watch for the day
chambal fert
Fsl
Unitech

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Market Outlook 12-02-2009

Markets are expected to open weak and buying can emerge in the mid session.Lot of expectation is there from the interim budget and this and take the market further upside in the coming days.Nifty has support at 2880 -2850 levels and resistance at 2935-2960 levels above 2970 market is bullish.Watch for telecom and sugar stocts for the day.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Market Outlook-11-02-2009

Market expected to open weak in line with the asian market trends.Profit booking can seen in banking and metal stocks.Volatile movement can be seen in the market today.Recovery is expectred in the mid-session or in the last hour of trading.Nifty below 2900 is weak support levels are 2850-2835 and resistance at 2925-2960 levels for the day.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Investment

Today market has closed very strong, Entire day the market was very choopy buying emerged only in the last hour of trading.Nifty has crossed the strong resistance level of 2880 and closed at 2919 and heading towards 2960 level.It appears that the pre budget rally is on the card.Traders advise to be cautious on short sell.